Despite a bizarre year that nearly decimated the theatre and film industry, 2020 still managed to eke out some most-excellent films, with any one of the eight nominees well-deserving of Best Picture. Picking the winners of the major categories, the vital elements of filmmaking, is always a challenge. Educated guesses include looking at past histories, endless statistics, and a close look at the Guild Awards; Screen Actors (SAG), Writers (WGA), Producers (PGA), and Directors (DGA)…all of which have a strong overlap in the Academy voting block. And it’s still worth looking at the British Film Awards (BAFTA), and the Golden Globes. And of course, picking the winners can also be done by dart-boards, tea-leaves, and good old fashioned gut-instinct. For this second part of Oscar Picks, Reel Speak will pick the winners in the most important categories on the road to Best Picture.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No film has won Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination since TITANIC in 1997, so it’s safe to say the Academy values writing. Of all films, BORAT: SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM won this category at the WGA this year, but it seems unlikely to repeat at the Oscars. NOMADLAND may have received a boatload of wins this season, but did not get nominated in this category at the WGA. The lack of guild support leaves the door open for THE FATHER to sneak in and steal one.
Winner: THE FATHER
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN is the favorite here, having won this category at WGA and BAFTA this year. Aaron Sorkin’s THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 would be the next best bet, having won here at the Globes. As great as CHICAGO 7 is, the industry really seems to love PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN; if it doesn’t win in Best Actress, it’ll win here.
Winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
BEST EDITING
How important is Editing? Two-thirds of the 92 Best Picture winners also won for Editing. THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 won Best Edited Film at the American Cinema Editors (ACE) this year, and its non-linear style of extended flashbacks, as presented in a courtroom…is quite masterful.
Winner: THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
BEST DIRECTOR
Since its inception in 1948, the DGA has only failed to match the Academy eight times. NOMADLAND director Chloe Zhao is in a position to complete a sweep; having won at DGA, Globes, and BAFTA. Zhao could be only the second woman, after Kathryn Bigelow in 2009, to take home Best Director…and the Academy does love to make history.
Winner: Chloe Zhao
BEST PICTURE
Going through a process of elimination, no film that is lacking nominations in Editing or Screenplay is a serious contender, so that eliminates MANK, MINARI, and JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH. THE FATHER could pull off some surprises, but other than BAFTA has not won very much the entire season. The same goes for SOUND OF METAL, which looks to be honored in the technical categories. We’re left with a three-horse race between NOMADLAND, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, and THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN won Best British Film at BAFTA and a host of other awards, but most of those have been restricted to the acting and writing. The intimate and understated NOMADLAND feels like the safe bet, already having won all the major prizes at Globes, BAFTA, DGA, and PGA. It did not win the Best Ensemble at SAG, but since it doesn’t have an ensemble cast, that doesn’t matter much. CHICAGO 7 is in the same exact position PARASITE was a year ago, which lost out to 1917 in all the precursors, but then pulled out the win at the Oscars. The difference is CHICAGO 7, as good as it is, just isn’t the phenomenon PARASITE was. It’s a bit showy, but sometimes understated is better.
Winner: NOMADLAND
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Read Reel Speak’s picks in the acting categories HERE
The 93rd Academy Awards will be held this coming Sunday.
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