A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks, Part 1

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will award their 92^nd Oscars this Sunday, honoring the best achievements in cinema for the year that was 2019. In past years, there was well over a month from the release of the nominations to the ceremony, leaving film bloggers, critics, and experts plenty of time to try and predict the winners. This year, that gap was shortened by nearly three weeks, making it a bit tougher to try and out-guess the Academy voters. 

The good news is, the acting categories look to be the easiest to figure out. The Academy has a large overlap with the Guilds, especially the Screen Actors (SAG), and in the past studying those awards would provide a strong indicator to how Oscar night will unfold. So far, the four categories have been dominated by four actors…and it is rare that any nominee would win big at SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA…and then not complete the sweep on Oscar Night. Barring any sort of major upset (there always seems to be at least one), this year’s acting categories should finish the way the season has started. 

Here now are Reel Speak’s picks in the acting categories. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern should complete her sweep for her role in MARRIAGE STORY. Her closest competition comes from her co-star Scarlett Johansson, who was nominated for her role in JOJO RABBIT…a film that has picked up late momentum this season with surprise wins at the Writers Guild (WGA), and BAFTA. Scarlett is a first-time nominee however, and rookies rarely win. 

Winner: Laura Dern

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt should also complete his sweep for his role as a stuntman in Quentin Tarantino’s ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD. Prime for the upset is Joe Pesci for his turn as a notable mobster in Martin Scorsese’s THE IRISHMAN. Pesci could gain a nostalgia-vote, as a win would bring him back on stage for the first time since he won in 1989 for Scorsese’s GOODFELLAS. It would make for a nice bookend, but Pitt’s role as a Hollywood stuntman speaks to the Academy voters…who love to see movies made about themselves. 

Winner: Brad Pitt

BEST ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger should take home her second career Oscar for her stunning transformation into the famed Judy Garland in JUDY. The only worry she may have is that her nomination is the only one JUDY has, which points to a lesser movie. This could open the door for Scarlett Johansson who also has a nomination for MARRIAGE STORY, but with Zellweger’s performance being hailed as the best in her resume of great performances…the odds learn towards her. And again, JUDY is a Hollywood story about one of their own. 

Winner: Renee Zellweger

BEST ACTOR

In any other year, Leonardo DiCaprio would take home another Oscar for his take on an aging action-star in ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD. As a movie that is about making movies, DiCaprio was required to play more than one character, and his short scene as an outlaw in the Old West is simply stunning. But even more stunning is Joaquin Phoenix from JOKER…who lost weight and dug deep for his breathtaking turn as the eventual Clown Prince of Crime which has earned him wins at the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG. His chilling laugh alone is good enough to win. 

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix

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Read Reel Speak's predictions in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture HERE