A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks, Part 1

It’s Oscar Week! 

 

The 96^th Academy Awards are this coming Sunday, and the time has come to read the tea leaves, polish the crystal ball, and use the Force to fill out our ballots correctly…which brings us to Reel Speak’s Oscar Picks, Part 1. 

 

This year much of the usual drama is not here, as there is one film poised to dominate and take home the biggest prize in cinema. Best Picture is a lock, and most of the drama will come from two of the acting categories and how many BARBIE fails to win. Despite this, the same approaches are in play when predicting Oscar winners. Every year it comes down to stats and trends, momentum, and good old-fashioned gut instinct. Paying close attention to the pre-cursors is also vital; the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), and Writers Guild (WGA)…along with the Golden Globes and the British Academy of Film and Television (BAFTA). The Academy can often ride the wave set before them, so whoever wins early and often is usually the favorite. 

 

For this Part 1 of Oscar Picks, this Blogger will pick the winners in the acting categories. 

 

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da’Vine Joy Randolph from Alexander Payne’s THE HOLDOVERS is in position to complete a sweep. She has already won at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA…and it is very rare that a sweep is not completed in the acting categories. No contest here. 

 

Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph from THE HOLDOVERS 

 

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey Jr. from Christopher Nolan’s OPPENHEIMER is also ready to sweep away, having won at SAG, Globes, and BAFTA. His slimy politician character in OPPENHEIMER is a far cry from the wise-cracking superhero he came to be closely associated with over the last 15 years, and his demonstration of range and finding a few new gears will be awarded. Considering his once troubled past, the Academy will not pass up the chance to generate what should be a very emotional and triumphant moment. 

 

Winner: Robert Downey, Jr. from OPPENHEIMER

 

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

This is where the drama finally arrives, as this has become a race between Emma Stone from POOR THINGS, and Lily Gladstone from Martin Scorsese’s historical epic, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON. Stone won at BAFTA, and split with Gladstone at the Globes (Stone won in the comedy category, Gladstone won in drama), but Gladstone won the all-important SAG. Stone’s performance was bombastic, but Gladstone was unnervingly subtle, which often wins. It’s close, but if Gladstone wins she would be the first Native American to win an Oscar. No way the Academy passes up that moment. 

 

Winner: Lily Gladstone for KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

 

 

BEST ACTOR

Another tight race, with Cillian Murphy from OPPENHEIMER and Paul Giamatti from THE HOLDOVERS duking it out for the strap. Just like the ladies, they split the awards at the Globes, and then Murphy won at BAFTA and at SAG. Giamatti has been chasing an Oscar for what seems like forever, and voters could go for the unspoken lifetime-achievement award. But if it’s this close, the Force says to go with the guy who belongs to the film that has been winning all the gold so far. Murphy wins. 

 

Winner: Cillian Murphy for OPPENHEIMER

 

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Thursday: Reel Speak makes the picks in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture. 

 

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The 96^th Academy Awards are this Sunday at 7pm.