A Reel Opinon: Oscar Picks - Part 1

The 95^th Academy Awards are less than a week away, and in this first part of Oscar picks, Reel Speak will attempt to pick the winners in the acting categories. 

 

Picking winners every year often comes down to stats and trends, momentum, and good old-fashioned gut-instinct. Following the precursor awards is vital; the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA), Writers Guild (WGA), Directors Guild (DGA), Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA). The Oscars can often be a monkey-see, monkey-do thing, and whoever wins early and often can be considered the favorite. 

 

But every year there is a X-factor, and this year that factor is the huge disparity from BAFTA and where the rest of the industry awards has showed love. BAFTA went big with the Netflix-carried ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, but SAG and Hollywood have been in all-in on the universe-hopping EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. There is no question that actors hold a lot of power in Hollywood, and as they go, the Academy tends to go. 

 

And the Oscar will go to…

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Each acting category this year has the potential for some real emotion, as all four have long-time fan-favorites in competition. This will be the first stand-up-and-cheer moment, as Jamie Lee Curtis, for her role in the heavily favored EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, looks to take this one home. The great Angela Bassett won this category at the Globes, while BAFTA went with Kerry Condon for THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, but Curtis seems primed to repeat her SAG win and get the ball rolling for a big night for her film. 

 

WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is nearly a no-contest, with Ke Huy Quan’s delightful performance in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE being the heavy favorite, having already won at SAG and the Globes. Quan is somewhat outnumbered by THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, which has two actors in this category (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), but the data supports Short Round taking home the fortune and glory. 

 

WINNER: Ke Huy Quan

BEST ACTRESS

A very close race, with the famed Cate Blanchett winning here at the Globes and at BAFTA for her role as a troubled music conductor in TAR. She seemed ready for a sweep, but then Michelle Yeoh pulled off a stunner with her win at SAG. TAR seems to have dropped off everyone’s radar, and Yeoh’s film has a lot of momentum right now, and if the atmosphere at the SAG Awards is any indication, even Cate wants Yeoh to win. 

 

WINNER: Michelle Yeoh 

BEST ACTOR

The tightest race of the year, with Austin Butler’s lead role as the King in ELVIS going toe-to-toe with Brendan Fraser’s role as an obese man at the end of his life in THE WHALE. Early in the season Butler looked to have this locked up, with wins at the Globes and BAFTA. But then SAG went with Fraser, who over the years has become one of Hollywood’s most beloved. People still adore Elvis (the man more than the movie), so this very well could be Butler. History is on the side of the King: the last time all four acting wins went to fictional characters was 2016, and before that it was 1997. But when in doubt, follow the actors. 

 

WINNER: Brendan Fraser

 

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Read Reel Speak's in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture HERE

 

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The 95^th Oscars are this Sunday, the 12^th.