A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks - Part 2

The 95^th Academy Awards are less than a week away. Earlier this week Reel Speak picked the winners in the acting categories (HERE), and will now attempt to predict the winners in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture. 

 

Picking winners every year often comes down to stats and trends, momentum, and good old-fashioned gut-instinct. Following the precursor awards is vital; the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA), Writers Guild (WGA), Directors Guild (DGA), Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA). The Oscars can often be a monkey-see, monkey-do thing, and whoever wins early and often can be considered the favorite. 

 

But every year there is a X-factor, and this year that factor is the huge disparity from BAFTA and where the rest of the industry awards has showed love. BAFTA went big with the Netflix-carried ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, but the Guilds have been in all-in on the universe-hopping EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. The Globes went to Steven Spielberg’s THE FABELMANS (drama), and THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN for comedy, and although there is no overlap in the Globes and Academy voters, they can still reflect what is the talk of the town. 

 

 

 

And the Oscar will go to…

 

 

 

 

BEST EDITING

A Best Picture winner, or contender, should have good editing. In 95 years, two-thirds of all Best Picture winners have also won for editing. However, the winner of Best Editing has not matched Best Picture since ARGO in 2012. That odd streak comes to an end this year, with EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE and its insane, yet easy-to-follow universe-hopping story taking this one. 

 

WINNER: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

 

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Very tough year for the writing categories. Sarah Polley’s adaptation of the 2018 novel WOMEN TALKING has been heralded for its screenplay, having won at the WGA earlier this month. Its closest competition seems to be the Netflix-produced ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, which was the big winner at BAFTA but failed to get a nomination from WGA. WOMEN TALKING has been praised all season, and deserves to win something. This is that something. 

 

WINNER: WOMEN TALKING

 

 

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE dazzled us with its editing and will be rewarded so, and that roadmap to edit came from its equally dazzling screenplay, which balances the spectacle and madness with a down-to-earth family story. Having already won at WGA, this feels like an easy one. 

 

WINNER: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

BEST DIRECTOR

Another one that feels like it’s already in the bag. Directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known as the Daniels), have been cleaning house all year, including the top prize at the DGA. Their competition includes Steven Spielberg (THE FABELMANS), and Martin McDonagh (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN), but the Daniels followed those roadmaps in creating not only spectacle, but sending a year-best four actors to nominations. 

 

WINNER: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

 

 

BEST PICTURE

It’s hard to stop a freight train once it gets going, and EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is that train. It has won the top honors at all the guilds this year (only the fifth film in history to do so), has the most acting nominations and the most overall this year. It works in bringing spectacle and is a technical marvel, and also delivers the drama in a relatable, family story. It’s been the talk of Tinsel Town since the start, and even its competitors seem to favor it. It will win everything. Everywhere. And all at once. 

 

WINNER: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. 

 

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The Oscars are this Sunday, the 12^th.