A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks, Part 2

The 94^th Academy Awards, honoring the best in film from the year 2021, are this Sunday. Earlier this week, Reel Speak made selections in the acting categories (HERE), and will now attempt to pick the winners in the elemental “top of the line” categories leading to Best Picture. 

 

Picking winners every year often comes down to stats and trends, momentum, and good old-fashioned gut-instinct. Watching the precursor awards is vital; the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA), Writers Guild (WGA), Directors Guild (DGA), Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA). The Oscars can often be a monkey-see, monkey-do thing, and whoever wins early and often can be considered the favorite. 

 

This year, the race has funneled down to two films: the feel-good family drama CODA, and the Old West tragedy THE POWER OF THE DOG. Both films have fared well in the precursor events, and both have merits and demerits when analyzing their Oscar chances. Stats favor both, and one way or another this could be the year of some normal routines being broken. 

 

 

So, let’s pick some winners…

 

 

 

 

BEST EDITING

A vital category that is often overlooked. About two-thirds of all Best Picture winners have also won for film editing, including a streak of 33 consecutive years (1981-2013), where the Best Picture winner had at least the Editing nomination. That is a major knock against CODA which is absent here. This category has been won by KING RICHARD at the American Cinema Editors this year, while NO TIME TO DIE won at BAFTA. But every year there seems to a film that is heavy on the technical achievements and sweeps the tech awards, and this year that film is DUNE. This is one of many coming for the sci-fi epic. 

 

Winner: DUNE

 

 

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA won this category at BAFTA and the WGA awards this year, but at WGA it was not up against POWER OF THE DOG due to an ineligibility issue. But if DOG doesn’t have support of the Writers Guild block of voters, then CODA is in the driver’s seat. 

 

Winner: CODA

 

 

 

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Very competitive category with BELFAST, KING RICHARD, and LICORICE PIZZA all with a strong chance to take this. Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical film BELFAST won this at the Golden Globes, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age LICORICE PIZZA bested BELFAST and KING RICHARD at BAFTA. The WGA went with the end-of-the-world satire DON’T LOOK UP for Best Original. BELFAST is the real darling, earning several nominations in the major categories, and this is likely the only one that it can win. 

 

Winner: BELFAST 

 

 

 

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Practically a no-contest. Jane Campion for THE POWER OF THE DOG has so far won here at the Director’s Guild, BAFTA, and the Globes. It’s rare that a sweep is not completed. 

 

Winner: THE POWER OF THE DOG

 

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE

This Blogger called CODA for Best Picture way back in August of last year, but some stats and trends do not favor it. The lack of an Editing nomination is a red flag, as is a lack of a nomination for Directing. But…CODA has a huge swing of momentum right now, having won Best Film at the Producer’s Guild, Best Ensemble at SAG, and a vital win with the Writer’s. THE POWER OF THE DOG remains the favorite, as its 12 overall nominations including four for acting are GODFATHER-like stats. But DOG is not without its red flags. Going home empty-handed at SAG was a huge one (when in doubt, follow the actors), and considering the cold and distant style of DOG…compared to the uplifting and warmth of CODA…it’s clear which film voters would feel better about. CODA’s win at PGA may be the dealbreaker, as the winner of Best Film there has gone on to win Best Picture 8 of the last 10 years. There are other stats say DOG, but this Blogger is sticking with the gut-instinct from day one. 

 

Winner: CODA

 

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The 94^th Academy Awards are this Sunday, the 27^th.