A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks, Part 1

The 94^th Academy Awards are less than a week away, and in this first part of Oscar picks, Reel Speak will attempt to pick the winners in the acting categories. 

 

Picking winners every year often comes down to stats and trends, momentum, and good old-fashioned gut-instinct. Watching the precursor awards is vital; the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA), Writers Guild (WGA), Directors Guild (DGA), Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA). The Oscars can often be a monkey-see, monkey-do thing, and whoever wins early and often can be considered the favorite. 

 

But there is always an X-factor, and this year that factor is Jane Campion’s heralded THE POWER OF THE DOG. Her Western has earned 12 Oscar nominations with four for acting, which are GODFATHER-like stats. However, the film has come up short in some of the Guild Awards; going home empty-handed at SAG and PGA. But the film has won big at BAFTA, the Globes, and with the Directors. The shutout loss at SAG says a lot, but with four chances in the acting categories it feels like it should and could steal at least one of them. 

 

So here are Reel Speak’s picks for the Actors and Actresses: 

 

 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE 

Ariana DeBose for Steven Spielberg’s WEST SIDE STORY is the heavy favorite here, having already won this category at BAFTA, SAG, and the Globes. It is rare for anyone to not complete a sweep, and this is likely the only category WEST SIDE STORY will win,. 

 

Winner: Ariana DeBose

 

 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Jessica Chastain’s stunning transformation into televangelist Tammy Faye Baker has so far earned her a win here at SAG, however she lost here to fellow nominee Nicole Kidman at BAFTA for her portrayal of Lucille Ball in BEING THE RICARDOS. Kidman has been here four times now and won once (2003 for THE HOURS), and this is Chastain’s third trip down the red carpet, having come up short in 2012 and 2013. The Academy does love those first-time winners, and when in doubt, follow the actors (SAG). The X-factor here is Kristen Stewart for her role as Princess Diana in SPENCER, but that film hasn’t seen much love from anyone. 

 

Winner: Jessica Chastain

 

 

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

This one belongs to Troy Kotsur, who has the chance to be the first deaf male actor to take home the Oscar. His role in CODA as a deaf father has so far earned him wins at SAG, BAFTA, and helped his film take home Best Ensemble at SAG. This will be the emotional moment of the evening. 

 

Winner: Troy Kotsur

 

 

 

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

This year’s Best Actor race may seem a wrap on paper, but this is the category that is ripe for a surprise. Will Smith has so far taken home wins at SAG, BAFTA, and Globes for his part as the father of tennis legends Venus and Serena Williams in KING RICHARD. Smith has been here three times now and this could be his first win. But lurking in the background is Benedict Cumberbatch for his role in the heavily-nominated THE POWER OF THE DOG. As said above, DOG feels like it can win one acting award, and this would be the place for it as his three co-stars (Jesse Plemons, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Kirsten Dunst), would not likely be the ones. If the vote is too close, the door could be open for Andrew Garfield to sneak in for his part in TICK, TICK…BOOM! This is a tight race, but sweeps happen often, and with the strategy of following the actors, it feels safe to bet that the Fresh Prince will finally earn his crown. 

 

Winner: Will Smith