A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks

The 98^th Academy Awards are this weekend, honoring the best in film in the year that was 2025. This year was an Oscar race that seemed poised to be dominated by Paul Thomas Anderson’s ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, however in recent weeks the pendulum has swung towards Ryan Coogler’s SINNERS…setting up a showdown on Oscar Sunday that is sure to be dramatic. So, who wins? Will it be Anderson's modern-day classic, or Coogler's horror film? Or something we are not expecting? 

 

The best guideline has been to follow the Guilds: The Actors (SAG), Writers (WGA), Directors (DGA), and Producers (PGA). And although the Golden Globes and BAFTA do not have any overlap with Academy voters, they can be an indicator of what the industry as a whole likes. These precursors can tell us a lot, but in recent years there has been another factor: the film that has the most energy around it. Both of these approaches can work. Here now are Reel Speak’s analysis and picks for the acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture. 

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Madigan’s transformative performance in WEAPONS is the favorite to win, having won at SAG just a few weeks ago. She’s also won in several critics awards this year, and although they don’t vote in the Oscars, no one else in her category is getting that much love from Tinseltown. 

 

Winner: Amy Madigan for WEAPONS 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Veteran actor Sean Penn in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER is the favorite, having won at SAG and at the Globes. He has stiff competition from his castmate Benicio Del Toro and Delroy Lindo for SINNERS, but he seems the safe bet to join the elite club of three career Oscars. 

 

Winner: Sean Penn for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER 

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley for the biographical period film HAMNET won here at SAG, and despite how acclaimed her film is, doesn’t seem set to win anywhere else. This would be a proper win for the film that has had a lot of people talking this year. 

 

Winner: Jessie Buckley for HAMNET 

 

BEST ACTOR

A very tight race between Michael B. Jordan for SINNERS and Timothee Chalamet for MARTY SUPREME. Chalamet won the Globe, but Jordan took the SAG…and for those of us who watched Jordan win the latter, it’s clear there’s a lot of love for him and his film; and that could be an indicator for how things can play out later in the evening…

 

Winner: Michael B. Jordan for SINNERS 

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR 

This is where the fun begins. Paul Thomas Anderson for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER is poised to sweep, having won the DGA, Globe, and BAFTA. It’s darn difficult to get around the absolute explosion of applause that happened at SAG when it won its awards, but it’s even more difficult to see an upset happening.  

 

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER 

 

BEST PICTURE

And this is where the battle between Oscar-picking strategies meets on the field. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER has won everything; Globes, BAFTA, WGA, DGA, and the all-important PGA, which has correlated with the Oscars Best Picture nine of the last 10 years. Stats say ONE BATTLE, but the other approach of always looking for the film with the most energy around it has to be considered. SINNERS big win at SAG, the Best Ensemble, resulted in a wild and enthusiastic applause from the Actors Guild that could be felt through the screen. We’ve seen this before with PARASITE in 2019 and EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE in 2022. Which way to go? For this year This Blogger is going with the statistics and running with the film that has been winning all season long. Stats are tough to get around no matter what vibes are in the air. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER wins. 

But don't be surprised if we see a horror movie pull a shock. 

 

Winner: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

 

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The 98^th Academy Awards are this Sunday.