The 97th Academy Awards are this weekend, honoring the best achievements in cinema for the year that was 2024. Unlike last year where there was one dominant film sweeping the precursors, this year there is no clear frontrunner, making for a challenging prediction process. Reel Speak’s strategy has been to follow the lead of the Guilds: The Writers (WGA), Directors (DGA), Producers (PGA), and the Screen Actors (SAG). It is also prudent to follow the Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), which can indicate the vibe of the industry. And of course, the good old fashioned, tried-and-true Movie Gut. Here now are Reel Speak’s picks for the major categories:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana for the controversial EMILIA PEREZ is poised to complete a season sweep, having won this category at BAFTA, SAG, and the Golden Globes. EMILIA PEREZ, despite having the most nominations (13 total), has caused uproar one way or another all year, and that may push some voters away which could allow Ariana Grande for the ever-popular WICKED to sneak in. But that’s a lot of ifs, and it’s rare a sweep is not completed.
Winner: Zoe Saldana for EMILIA PEREZ
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Just like Zoe, this category also looks like a lock, with Kieran Culkin also about to sweep for his role in the Jesse Eisenberg-directed A REAL PAIN. Culkin has been an awards darling all year, and unlike Zoe, his film has no flies on it.
Winner: Kieran Culkin for A REAL PAIN
BEST ACTRESS
The closest race in the acting categories, with Demi Moore for the body-horror THE SUBSTANCE, and Mikey Madison for ANORA. Moore won the Globe and the all-important SAG, but Madison won at BAFTA and her film has more nominations and overall momentum. Moore however has been one of the best stories of this Awards Season, and voters love a good story.
Winner: Demi Moore for THE SUBSTANCE
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody seemed ready to sweep for his tremendous role in the towering epic THE BRUTALIST, but hit a speed-bump when he was upset by Timothee Chalamet at SAG. But Brody still seems to be the safe bet, having dominated the awards conversation all year. And voters won’t be able to resist giving him his second Oscar nearly 20 years after he won his first.
Winner: Adrien Brody for THE BRUTALIST
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The WGA gave their top award in this category to THE NICKEL BOYS, but with that film not getting much love by the Academy, we have to look elsewhere. CONCLAVE won here at BAFTA and at the Globes, and as a dialogue-driven film with not much action, leans heavily on its writing.
Winner: CONCLAVE
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is a tight race between A REAL PAIN, THE BRUTALIST, and ANORA. The WGA went with ANORA, and BAFTA went with A REAL PAIN. The solid rule of thumb is to follow the Guilds, and ANORA has more overall nominations which indicates Academy love.
Winner: ANORA
BEST DIRECTOR
Another tight race which comes down to Brady Corbet for THE BRUTALIST and Sean Baker for ANORA. Corbet bested Baker at the Globes and BAFTA, but Baker won the all-important Directors Guild. This Blogger believes THE BRUTALIST to be the better film, but since the DGA’s inception in 1948, there has only been eight occasions where they didn’t match the Oscar’s pick. That’s not happening this year either.
Winner: Sean Baker for ANORA
BEST PICTURE
Anything can happen here. THE BRUTALIST won at the Globes, ANORA won the Producers Guild, and CONCLAVE won at BAFTA and pulled a surprise win at SAG, taking home their top award. CONCLAVE however is missing a nomination for Directing (not a dealbreaker, but still loses points), and ANORA’s PGA win means a lot; that guild has matched Best Picture 7 of the last 10 years. This Blogger wants THE BRUTALIST, but with ANORA poised to take Director and Screenplay, the ol’ Movie Gut says otherwise.
Winner: ANORA
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The 97th Academy Awards will take place this Sunday, March 2nd.
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