A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks, Part 2

This second part of Oscar Picks selects the winners in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture. For Reel Speak’s selections in the acting categories, read Part 1 HERE.

As stated in Part 1, predicting the Oscar winners should logically begin with the Guild awards; the actors (SAG), directors (DGA), writers (WGA), and producers (PGA). By looking at those winners and comparing past stats and trends, we have a solid stepping-off point simply because many Guild members are also Academy voters. Studying other major awards such as the Golden Globes, British Academy (BAFTA), and the technical societies honoring editing and visual effects can offer insight as well. 

Also in the past, studying the ballot closely can offer clues to what film will take home the final Oscar of the night. Historically, films that are lacking nominations in Editing, Screenplay, Acting, and Director are automatically ruled out. But this year has the potential to be a little different. Here now are Reel Speak’s selections in those vital categories leading to Best Picture. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No film has won Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination since TITANIC in 1997, and eight of the last 11 Best Picture winners also won Screenplay, so it’s safe to say that the Academy takes writing very seriously. Taika Waititi’s JOJO RABBIT was the surprise winner at this year’s WGA and BAFTA and is the favorite. JOKER or THE IRISHMAN could spoil, as could LITTLE WOMEN for its work on re-arranging the old story. JOJO RABBIT stands out as the lone comedy in a field full of drama, and that alone might be enough.

Winner: JOJO RABBIT

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Possibly the most difficult category to pick this year. Sam Mendes’ WWI epic 1917 was simple yet effective, and voters could be tempted to pick the film that has some of the most nominations. Quentin Tarantino’s ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD is a story about Hollywood, which means voters could be tempted to vote for themselves. But Tarantino does not belong to the Writers Guild, and that could be a factor. South Korean director Bong Joon-ho’s boundary-smashing PARASITE won this category at WGA and BAFTA, and seems to be poised to finish the sweep. It’s close, but PARASITE’s strong, twisting, script on social structure and humanity has that wide reach that works with voters. 

Winner: PARASITE

BEST EDITING

How important is editing? Only two films in 41 years have won Best Picture without an Editing nomination. PARASITE won the top prize at this year’s American Cinema Editors awards, and JOJO RABBIT also won there in the comedy category. FORD V. FERRARI could spoil with its high-octane racing scenes, and at over three hours, THE IRISHMAN doesn’t seem to be edited enough. PARASITE has a remarkable building of tension, and its many surprises executed perfectly. 

Winner: PARASITE 

BEST DIRECTOR

PARASITE’s Bong Joon-ho is primed to pull an upset, but 1917 director Sam Mendes has been cleaning house all season long; winning Best Director at the DGA, Golden Globes, and BAFTA. His film, made to look like one continuous take, is a towering technical achievement that is impossible to overlook. No film was better directed in 2019. 

Winner: Sam Mendes

BEST PICTURE

Any film that lacks nominations in Directing, Editing, Screenplay, and Acting…and has little love from the Guilds does not have the odds in their favor, so that practically eliminates FORD V. FERRARI, JOKER, THE IRISHMAN, LITTLE WOMEN, MARRIAGE STORY, and JOJO RABBIT. That leaves 1917, PARASITE, and ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD as the frontrunners…with each film having pros and cons. 

1917 is the favorite going in, having won the top prize at BAFTA, DGA, the Globes, and the all-important PGA…whose Best Film award has matched Oscar seven of the last 10 years. Going against it is the lack of an Editing nomination, but we’ve seen films overcome that before; its filming style is exactly like BIRDMAN in 2014, which overcame that issue to win Best Picture. The real problem is it does not have any Acting nominations, and only three films in the last 25 years have won Best Picture without at least one; SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (2011), THE RETURN OF THE KING (2003), and BRAVEHEART (1995). 

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD ticks all the right boxes, with the exception of Editing which is important in this case. At the Guilds, HOLLYWOOD went head-to-head against 1917 and PARASITE and lost every time. What it has going for it is that it’s a Hollywood story, and those Hollywood voters would love to vote for themselves. 

PARASITE has had a remarkable run this season, winning the SAG Ensemble and WGA. It too lacks any Acting nominations, and the fact that it’s a foreign-language film works against it; no non-English speaking film in the Oscars 91-year history has won Best Picture. PARASITE is also nominated for Best International Film (formerly titled Foreign Language), which it’s a shoo-in to win…so it seems unlikely it would end the night with two major wins. 

So who wins? It’s hard to see PARASITE winning when it has its own category, and there are literally zero stats and trends to back up predicting a non-English speaking film to take home the top prize. If anything, the stats and trends work against it. ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD speaks directly to the voters in all guilds, but 1917 has that PGA win, which has been the strongest percentage-wise predicter in the last decade. On top of that, in every awards competition this season where 1917 went head-to-head against PARASITE and HOLLYWOOD, 1917 won. A sweep is in the works.

Winner: 1917

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The Oscars will be awarded February 9^th.