A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks - Part 2

When the Academy Awards were first handed out 90 years ago, the winners were known in advance. Things have changed since then, with the voters keeping their secrets closer than 007 in bed. That’s all fine, because part of the allure of the Oscars every year is trying to crack the code; as bloggers, critics, and fans of cinema use trends, stats, and gut-instinct to pick the winners in 24 categories.

Out of those 24, there are eight which are elemental towards Best Picture. Four belong to the actors (see Reel Speak’s acting picks HERE), and the rest belong to the hands and minds behind the camera. In this second and final part of Oscar picks, this Blogger makes selections in those all-important categories.

Best Editing

This is a vital category which is often overlooked. Two-thirds of all Best Picture winners have won this, and 35 out of the last 36 Best Picture winners got this nomination. This year the frontrunners are Christopher Nolan’s towering WWII epic DUNKIRK, and Edgar Wright’s snappy heist-film BABY DRIVER. BABY DRIVER was a surprise winner in this category at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA), while DUNKIRK won with the American Cinema Editors (ACE), which could point towards what the society of editors (peers) are thinking. BABY DRIVER was an assault on the senses, as was DUNKIRK, but BABY DRIVER was like editing a music video, while DUNKIRK required a lot more thought with its non-linear structure. This will be Nolan’s big win of the night.

Winner: DUNKIRK

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is where this Blogger learns from last year’s MOONLIGHT; that gut-instinct can be defeated by stats and trends. The favorite to win here is the scummy overpraised CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, which won this category at BAFTA and with the Writers Guild of America (WGA). It’s also going up against weak competition; the other four are not nominated for anything major.  

Winner: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Best Original Screenplay

Jordan Peele’s horror film GET OUT won this category with the WGA in a minor surprise, but then lost to Martin McDonagh’s THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI at BAFTA. THREE BILLBOARDS has been gaining a lot of attention for its acting (three Oscar nominees and wins at all the other major awards), and great acting always begins with the written word. GET OUT may be a fan-favorite, but THREE BILLBOARDS wins; its powerful sequence with a suicide-note is worth the Oscar alone.

Winner: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro takes home this one for THE SHAPE OF WATER. He’s already won Best Director at the Globes, BAFTA, and the Director’s Guild of America (DGA), and his fantasy film checks off all the boxes in acting, cinematography, design, and editing…pulling in the most nominations of any film this year. His closest competition is Christopher Nolan for DUNKIRK, but Nolan did not direct any of his actors to a nomination, while del Toro sent three to the Oscars, which is tied for best. The Academy does love its actors.

Winner: Guillermo del Toro

Best Picture

As stated above, any film lacking a Best Editing nomination does not have the odds in its favor, so that eliminates GET OUT, LADY BIRD, DARKEST HOUR, PHANTOM THREAD, and THE POST. Continuing the process of elimination, Nolan’s DUNKIRK may be a grand achievement, but with no nominations in acting and writing, and scoring donuts in the Guilds, Globes, and BAFTA…sadly falls out of contention. That leaves del Toro’s THE SHAPE OF WATER to battle it out with McDonagh’s THREE BILLBOARDS. SHAPE has important wins with the Producers and Directors Guilds, and although THREE BILLBOARDS won big at BAFTA, the Oscars and BAFTA have not picked the same Best Picture in four years. McDonagh did not get a nomination for Best Director, but we’ve seen films overcome that before, especially if the writing is good…and THREE BILLBOARDS does have that nod. THREE BILLBOARDS has been dominant this season; winning at BAFTA, the Globes, and the all-important Screen Actors Guild (SAG)...and with SHAPE not even receiving a nomination for SAG, that’s where the race changes. The only movie to win Best Picture without a SAG nomination was BRAVEHEART over 22 years ago. Since then, no movie has won without it. Why is that? Because most of the Academy is made up of actors, and that’s the codebreaker.

Winner: THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

*

The Oscars will be awarded March 4^th.