A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks - Part 1

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have been awarding achievements in film for over 90 years. Their nominations are announced well in advance (over a month), leaving fans of the silver screen plenty of time to try and predict the winners. These predictions are usually done by studying past stats and trends, along with winners of the Guilds, Golden Globes, and the British Academy (BAFTA), while others go for methods of tea leaves, conspiracy theories, or just good old-fashioned gut instinct. 

The Academy has a large overlap with the Guilds, especially the Screen Actors (SAG), and in the past studying those awards have given sound logic to predicting the Oscars. But in this odd year, many of the films, actors, and actresses who have won in the Guilds have not been nominated in the Oscars, which throws a mighty wrench in the works and brings us back to the tea leaves. This Blogger has been known to drink a lot of tea (among other things), so here are Reel Speak’s picks in the acting categories…with Part 2 covering the elemental categories leading to Best Picture. 

The nominees and predictions are…

Best Supporting Actress

This is the toughest acting category of the year to call. Regina King from IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK is considered the favorite; having won this category at the Golden Globes in January. She was not however included in the SAG nominations, and her film was not nominated for Best Picture which could be a deal-breaker; only 9 times in 24 years has this category been won by an actress without a Best Picture nomination. That leads us to Rachel Weisz from THE FAVOURITE, who won this category at BAFTA. But Weisz has won an Oscar in this category before, and no actress has repeated here since 1994. But THE FAVOURITE is an actor-driven film, and the Academy does love its actors; with Weisz being one of three nominated from THE FAVOURITE. Weisz’s co-stars are unlikely to win in their respective categories, so this seems like the only place THE FAVOURITE can win an acting Oscar. The performances are too good to walk home empty-handed. 

WINNER: Rachel Weisz 

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali from GREEN BOOK should win this one easily. He’s already won at the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA…and no Supporting Actor has ever swept those awards and then lost the Oscar. There’s been a fair amount of controversy over GREEN BOOK, but no debate in just how good Ali’s performance was. 

WINNER: Mahershala Ali 

Best Actress

Glenn Close seems well on her way to winning her first Oscar in her long and successful career for her performance in THE WIFE, having won here at SAG, Globes, and a shared-win with Lady Gaga at the Critics Choice. But this category is ripe for an upset. Similar to the Best Supporting Actress category, THE WIFE is not nominated for Best Picture, and Close’s nomination is the only representation the film has; only three times since 1994 has a sole-representation won this category. Close could be upset by Lady Gaga from A STAR IS BORN, or by Olivia Colman from THE FAVOURITE…who also won the Globe and BAFTA. It’s close, but the odds favor Glenn.

WINNER: Glenn Close

Best Actor

Rami Malek for the divisive and troubled Queen biopic BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY seems on his way to his first career Oscar, having won this category everywhere else this season. Christian Bale could sneak in for his transformative performance in VICE, but that role owes a lot to the hair and makeup department. The huge upset could come from Bradley Cooper from A STAR IS BORN, whose snub in the Directing category could be pulling votes for his acting instead. Malek’s film has been drenched in controversy all year long; ranging from just how good the film actually is, to its historical accuracy, to its director being fired and accused of unspeakable crimes. All that may be enough to derail Malek, but anyone who has seen the film and witnessed Malek’s replication of the late great Freddie Mercury should only be voting for what they saw on the stage and screen. 

WINNER: Rami Malek 

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Read Reel Speak's predictions in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture HERE 

The Oscars will be awarded February 24^th.