A Reel Opinion: Oscar Picks - Part 2

This second part of Oscar Picks selects the winners in the elemental categories leading to Best Picture. For Reel Speak’s picks in the acting categories, read Part 1 HERE

As stated in Part 1, predicting the Oscar winners usually begins with the Guild awards; the actors (SAG), directors (DGA), writers (WGA), and producers (PGA). By looking at those winners and comparing past stats and trends, we have a solid stepping-off point simply because many Guild voters are also Academy members. Studying other major awards such as the Golden Globes, British Academy (BAFTA), and the technical societies honoring editing, visual effects, and sound can offer insight as well. 

But this year, that old approach has been disintegrated, as many Guild winners did not make the cut in the Oscar nominations, and for the first time in history, all major Guilds were won by different movies. Many people look at this as a mess, but this Blogger considers it a good thing; the fact that anything can win points towards a very diverse slate of films.

Here now are Reel Speak’s predictions in the vital categories leading to Best Picture. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

All movies begin and end with the written word. The Academy knows this and honors it; no movie has won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination since TITANIC in 1997. This Blogger really likes Spike Lee’s BLACKKKLANSMAN, which won this category at BAFTA, to take the Oscar. It is a profound statement on race relations in America today and in its ugly history;  sometimes the truth is hard to watch, and BLACKKKLANSMAN is boldly and bravely written just for that purpose. 

Winner: BLACKKKLANSMAN 

Best Original Screenplay

The recent WGA awards provide some insight into this very competitive category. THE FAVOURITE was absent from this year’s WGA because of eligibility reasons, and many expected GREEN BOOK to win with that absence. But GREEN BOOK lost, and with no love from the Guild, seems unlikely to take the Oscar. That leaves THE FAVOURITE, which won here at BAFTA.

Winner: THE FAVOURITE 

Best Editing

How important is editing? Only two films in 40 years have won Best Picture without an editing nomination. Adam McKay’s VICE has that snappy cutting style that would seem to be a likely winner, but it’s the same exact method he used in 2015 in THE BIG SHORT, which failed to win in this category. Spike Lee’s BLACKKKLANSMAN is masterfully edited, but it hasn’t received much love from the Guilds. Those same Guilds have awarded both BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and THE FAVOURITE for their editing, and although RHAPSODY has some oddball cutting here and there, its ability to rouse people out of their seats and re-create historic performances goes a long way. 

Winner: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Best Director

Of the 90 films that have won Best Picture, 64 of them have had have been awarded Best Director. Alfonso Cuaron’s personal story ROMA has thus far earned him every directing win there is this season; Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and DGA. Spike Lee for BLACKKKLANSMAN could pull the upset, but it’s hard to see Cuaron not completing the sweep. 

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Picture

Looking back at history, any film that is not nominated for Editing, Screenplay, or Directing does not have the odds in its favor, so that practically eliminates BLACK PANTHER, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, A STAR IS BORN,  GREEN BOOK, and possibly ROMA. The films left that have all the right boxes ticked are VICE, BLACKKKLANSMAN, and THE FAVOURITE. Both VICE and BLACKKKLANSMAN are strong, but neither one has had much success in the Guilds. That leaves THE FAVOURITE, which has all the right nominations. It’s also a film where actors rule, and the Academy does love its actors. ROMA has had a ton of success this season, having won Best Picture at BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice. Its lack of an editing nomination is a problem, but its unique style is akin to 2014’s BIRDMAN, which overcame that issue to win Best Picture. However, no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, and that’s a long 90 years of history to overcome. And on top of that, this Blogger feels that this year’s winner will be determined in the screenplay categories; eight of the last 10 Best Picture winners also won screenplay. THE FAVOURITE wins with the written word and wins the final one. 

Winner: THE FAVOURITE 

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The Oscars will be awarded February 24^th.