A Reel Opinion: THE FIVE YEAR THEORY

With Oscar Week officially upon us, the time is never better to debate and argue over who-will and who-won’t. What’s even more fun is debating whether or not Oscar always gets it right. This Blogger is here to answer that once and for all: Oscar does always get it right; depending on your point of view.

By now you’re saying, “thanks for the clear-as-mud answer, you asshole”. Fine. Read on:

Oscar gives the gold to the film/person that is best-in-category for that year, comparing against the competition. They are very much a prisoner of the moment; awarding the Best for right-here and right-now. That is their greatest gift, and their greatest flaw.

Where Oscar seems to fall short is looking at the bigger picture; how will the film or achievement hold up over time? No one can answer that, so it’s not always Oscar’s fault.

This Blogger believes in the FIVE YEAR THEORY: when a winner is crowned, wait five years and see how that crown holds up.

Take for example The Year of our Oscar 1998. Steven Spielberg’s SAVING PRIVATE RYAN is heralded as the most realistic war film ever made, with solid characterizations, acting and writing. RYAN lost the Best Picture to SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE. Was SHAKESPEARE the better film that year? At that moment? Probably. But here we are years later, and RYAN is run on the cable channels every 4th of July, Memorial Day, and Veterans’ Day, making it an American classic. It is often kept on a high place of honor on a person’s DVD shelf. Now, how many people actually clamber over another chance to watch SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE? Raise your hand if you were a first-day Blu-ray buyer.

Time tells the tale. Consider:

1990: GOODFELLAS loses to DANCES WITH WOLVES. While WOLVES is a great film, which would you rather watch over and over? How many quotes from GOODFELLAS can you rattle off at the bar? How many from WOLVES?

2002: Adrien Brody beats out Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor. Years later, which performance is considered more iconic?

Sadly, last year’s Best Picture winner may fail the FIVE YEAR THOERY as well. While THE HURT LOCKER was a great film, it’s very well possible that in five years the general public will be tired of films portraying the war in the Middle East, and would rather put the whole era behind. That could relegate LOCKER to a dust-gatherer on the shelf. It deserved the award then, but how will it be remembered in five years?

It’s a tough question, and maybe a bit unfair. But it may be fair to say that Oscar gets it right at the present, but fails to see the future.

What say you?